Modelo sobre a dinâmica da interferência da percepção de corrupção nas prestações de contas das prefeituras baianas

Abstract

The permanence and persistence of corruption, in addition to misappropriating the patrimony of society, causes disservice in the essential demands of the population and reduces national and foreign investments due to political and judicial weaknesses. Understanding the dynamics of corruption in the public sector will facilitate the implementation of anti-corruption policies, obeying what advocates the law of fiscal responsibility. The study developed had the purpose of analyzing, through the creation of an analytical model based on the System Dynamics methodology, the behavior of the perception of corruption, and its trajectory in the judgement of the accountability reports of the prefectures of the state of Bahia that are forwarded to the Tribunal de Contas dos Municípios. For this, the methodological procedure classified, by nature, as a mixed and investigative was chosen, and the exploratory bias was experimental in nature. Two scales were considered – macro and micro. For this, at first, support was sought in the literature on the subject and a simple and stylized prototype of corruption at the macro level was developed, considering two loops, which considerably reflect the occurrence of corruption at the national level, one of which is of Balance (1) and the other of Reinforcement (2). The calibration of the model was based on the Brazilian corruption perception index (CPI) between 2012 and 2019. In loop (1), greater corruption reduces investments in the country, generates more anti-corruption economic pressure and influences the judiciary to perform more effectively, reducing corruption in turn; and in the loop (2) there is the dynamics of more corruption generating more concentration of income, causing greater growth in the level of poverty, increasing the non-active political participation of the population, and generating more corruption. Results obtained based on simulations and analysis of scenarios performed are discussed. The second sector of the model follows the flow of the accountability reports in the prefectures, going through the audit and judgment by the Tribunais de Contas. Some premises, based on the literature, are proposed on how the perception of corruption at the national level can influence the accountability reports that are evaluated by the Tribunal de Contas.